Daniel Jones has gotten hurt and missed time every year. 2022 was an outlier in that department. But just looking at the tea leaves:
1. Daniel Jones is coming back from a recurring neck injury.
2. Daniel Jones best skill is scrambling which brings him into more contact.
3. Daniel Jones offensive line is still an unknown. Last season it put him out for the year early. Will it at all be improved this season.
4. Daniel Jones has unfamiliar weapons. No more Barkley or Waller. How long will it take to get on the same page with Nabers, Singletary and Theo Johnson?
I am not a DJ hater. I just don’t see a world where he isn’t coming into viscous contact and hard hits again.
last year - the ability to make pre and then quick post snap reads and throw to the 2nd or 3rd read.
how many times did he do this in the Vikings win?
The key will be the start. The start of the season for Jones is more important than the season as a whole for the team.
He won't be able to stay on the field if he starts 2-5 or something like that.
because either Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson will be starting for this team next year.
He is a runner
He takes off by design or when his first read us taken away
You virtually never see him scramble (run around behind the LOS) to buy more time to throw the ball
When he does run around back behind the line of scrimmage he usually winds up not throwing the ball and running out if bounds. He takes alot of lost yardage running out of bounds, which actually counts as a sack as oppossed to throwing the ball away
You can look at an example last year much cited of a WR I forgot who doing jumping jacks out there trying to get Jones to see him down field while Jones ran it out of bounds for a loss.
Is the OL the worst in the NFL again? If it is, what else can be expected?
Don't think DJ will last the entire year if he starts week 1.
3, 4 the least likely in that order.
Are that he misses at least 2 games. While I wouldn't refer to that as a substantial amount of time, none of the situations I see from him involve "fully healthy".
With that in mind I'd expect this:
Hurt missing a few games, average play made to look slightly better when Nabers takes a few short passes 80yds for a TD and skews Jones stats.
Expecting 3. He’ll miss time for an injury. Lock Will prove he’s not the answer and DJ will be back sooner than he should.
Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense.
I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025.
It's all down to the OL and player health
Paulie Walnuts : 8:56 am : link
We'll see
In comment 16538164 christian said:
| Quote: |
| Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense. I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025. |
If the defense is outstanding and Nabers has a similar impact to Beckham, you are predicting an improvement of 1 win? If that's the outcome the team is going to the playoffs. Not even a question. Especially given we are both high on Daboll.
repeat his 2022 season, although I don’t think he’ll run as often. To me, that is not enough. A modern NFL QB has to make plays downfield, and Jones has not shown he can do that.
But I will keep an open mind. He never has had a stellar WR group, or OL, but there are no excuses this year. Easily his best WR group, and while this OL isn’t likely to remind anyone of the early 90’s Cowboys, it should be solid. Another 15 TD season just isn’t going to cut it.
I'm betting on 4.
I think the additions of Nabers, a healthy Wan'Dale, a more experienced Hyatt, Theo, Runyan, Eluemunor and Bricillo's development of the OL is going to make a big difference.
I think Nabers alone is going to make a big difference and not only by his own individual production. I think his presence is going to improve the entire O.
I know a lot of people think they're just excuses, but it's a fact that most QBs play better with a decent OL and a stud WR or 2. DJ has never had a stud WR and has barely ever had a decent OL, at least not for long.
We've seen flashes from him without those 2 things and now he/we hopefully have them.
Another possible scenario is DJ is playing well and gets hurt. That's the one I most fear (and why I was ready to move on at the last draft).
He'll have his best year (though even if he throws 35 TDs and 4,500 yards plenty of BBIers will say he sucks --- in fact, they'll even contend 35/4,500 sucks in todays NFL.
#4, then #1 - without the editorial that the Giants look like idiots if Jones misses time for injury. On average QBs miss about 2 games a season (which was Jones average going into last season). They may look like idiots, but not because of Jones missing a few games.
No point in ranking 2 and 3. Too subjective, and not extreme enough. If Jones won MVP, BBIers haters will argue it's in spite of him, and Dave Brown would have passed for 8,000/100 with the same weapons.
In comment 16538074 Bill in UT said:
| Quote: |
| when he has to or if Daboll is stupid enough to call designated runs. |
It what Jones does best unfortunately.
He is not his QB.
In comment 16538144 HardTruth said:
| Quote: |
| He is a runner He takes off by design or when his first read us taken away You virtually never see him scramble (run around behind the LOS) to buy more time to throw the ball When he does run around back behind the line of scrimmage he usually winds up not throwing the ball and running out if bounds. He takes alot of lost yardage running out of bounds, which actually counts as a sack as oppossed to throwing the ball away You can look at an example last year much cited of a WR I forgot who doing jumping jacks out there trying to get Jones to see him down field while Jones ran it out of bounds for a loss. |
Spot on.
In comment 16538191 Sean said:
| Quote: |
| Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense. I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025. If the defense is outstanding and Nabers has a similar impact to Beckham, you are predicting an improvement of 1 win? If that's the outcome the team is going to the playoffs. Not even a question. Especially given we are both high on Daboll. |
Look at the Raiders - a top 10 defense, a no doubt number one receiver in Adams. Yet an 8 win team because of the talent at quarterback.
If Jones is healthy 17 games, then I agree they will improve more than 1-2 wins.
Let me know if that isn't intuitive.
There is no evidence that 4 will happen, so I would never bet on it.
Which should terrify everyone, because it's a recipe for not improving
2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.
you have to factor in McDaniels as well. He had a Judge-esque ending.
In comment 16538016 yalebowl said:
| Quote: |
| Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue. |
Definitely.
Definitely.
In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said:
| Quote: |
| 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. |
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
In comment 16538244 Darwinian said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said: Quote: 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience. |
You're hilarious.
In comment 16538269 HBart said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538244 Darwinian said: Quote: In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said: Quote: 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience. You're hilarious. |
How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric?
In comment 16538200 HBart said:
| Quote: |
| He'll have his best year (though even if he throws 35 TDs and 4,500 yards plenty of BBIers will say he sucks --- in fact, they'll even contend 35/4,500 sucks in todays NFL. |
Literally no one will say that. What will happen if Jones makes 17 starts and throws for 17 TD’s and 3,500 yds, averaging 6.5 YPA? My guess is the DJFC will be over the moon like you all were after 2022.
Yes, it sounds a bit pollyannaish, but given the expected improvement in the Oline and improved WR Corps...and likely drop in run game production, DJs passing stats will be the best of his career.
For the record, I wanted the Giants to trade up for Drake Maye but it wasn't meant to be.
DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned.
mostly because I think NFL defenses have him figured out and he showed regression instead of progression from 2022 to 2023. This many years in, he is what is he.
route for #4, it will be FAR better for this organization if he hits that benchmark!
The reality, is its far more likely to be 1 or 2, and if the OL is "adequate", he may hit #3. Just don't see the upside talent to hit 4 AND he may be so damaged mentally (Dave Carr syndrome), that even 3 is a stretch.
In comment 16538309 Section331 said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538200 HBart said: Quote: He'll have his best year (though even if he throws 35 TDs and 4,500 yards plenty of BBIers will say he sucks --- in fact, they'll even contend 35/4,500 sucks in todays NFL. Literally no one will say that. What will happen if Jones makes 17 starts and throws for 17 TD’s and 3,500 yds, averaging 6.5 YPA? My guess is the DJFC will be over the moon like you all were after 2022. |
I suspect NO ONE, even the most hardcore DJ fan is going to be happy, never mind "over the moon" with those kind of stats.
It was acceptable in '22 because the gameplan was very conservative and our #1 WR was a PS guy signed off waivers around the middle of the season.
AND you could see the offense getting better towards the end of the season, despite the fact our #1 WR was a PS guy gotten off waivers in Nov. The team scored 38 the last meaningful reg season game (everyone seems to forget DJ got a standing ovation after scoring 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing) to clinch the playoff berth) and then 31 on the road against a 13 win team (I don't want to hear the opposing defenses sucked, 'cause guess what, that's when you should score 30+ and they did, even with one of the worst receiving corps in the league).
We now have a stud named Nabers, a healthy Wan'Dale, a more experienced Hyatt (DJ barely had a healthy WD and neither of Nabers and Hyatt in '22) and hopefully an OL coach who knows what he's doing. The PS guy who we got off waivers in Nov., who became DJ's #1 WR in '22 might not make the roster this yr and if he does he'll be maybe the 5th or 6th WR.
See the difference?
In comment 16538138 Sean said:
| Quote: |
| The key will be the start. The start of the season for Jones is more important than the season as a whole for the team. He won't be able to stay on the field if he starts 2-5 or something like that. |
I think it's telling that the MGM sportsbook has his TD over/under at 9.5. Outside of last year, he's always beaten that number even in seasons where he's been injured. This communicates to me that his leash isn't going to be very long.
In comment 16538337 compton said:
| Quote: |
| DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned. |
See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era.
Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss.
along the lines of 4500 yds and 35 TDs, is that Jones has never shown a level of play in 5 years where he is capable of that kind of high level NFL passing production. Nothing even close. So, now entering year 6, we are being told he can achieve a level he has never come close to. It's an article of faith. I don't think you give players faith i that kind of growth in year 6. I'll believe it when I see it.
People are ragging on Trevor Lawrence. He's had some pretty bad situations, yet he has thrown over 4k yards his last 2 seasons (and he's only been in the league 3 seasons), over 20 TDs the last 2 seasons. And Y/A over 7.0 the last 2 seasons (an important baseline number that Jones has never attained). You can make a reasonable claim that 4500 yds and 35 TDs are within his ability. The same cannot be said of Jones.
In comment 16538368 Lambuth_Special said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538337 compton said: Quote: DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned. See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era. Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss. |
Disagree entirely with your point. He'll be playing well below the contract. You don't compete for championships, paying the 13th best QB on an arithmetic scale with the elites. The 13th best QB is not worth 85% of Josh Allen. If you want to compete for a title you have to pay that guy 15% to 20% of Josh Allen, employ a stars and scrubs strategy.
In comment 16538369 Darwinian said:
| Quote: |
| along the lines of 4500 yds and 35 TDs, is that Jones has never shown a level of play in 5 years where he is capable of that kind of high level NFL passing production. Nothing even close. So, now entering year 6, we are being told he can achieve a level he has never come close to. It's an article of faith. I don't think you give players faith i that kind of growth in year 6. I'll believe it when I see it. People are ragging on Trevor Lawrence. He's had some pretty bad situations, yet he has thrown over 4k yards his last 2 seasons (and he's only been in the league 3 seasons), over 20 TDs the last 2 seasons. And Y/A over 7.0 the last 2 seasons (an important baseline number that Jones has never attained). You can make a reasonable claim that 4500 yds and 35 TDs are within his ability. The same cannot be said of Jones. |
THis is all true, Darwinian. I'm not sure who is predicting those numbers, but they seem pretty unrealistic.
This should be the best OL he’s had. And the best WR corps by far he’s ever had. Obviously he’s been injury prone so #1 is always an issue. But I really think #2 is the least likely (unless he’s completely shell shocked and permanently psychologically damaged from last year)
I feel like 3 or 4 are the most likely. And I’m not being a DJ lover here but if the surrounding team stays healthy he should have his best year. Now that doesn’t mean he sets the world on fire and deserves to be here long term. I still think they draft a QB next year regardless… but I think this should be his best year.
In comment 16538372 Darwinian said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538368 Lambuth_Special said: Quote: In comment 16538337 compton said: Quote: DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned. See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era. Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss. Disagree entirely with your point. He'll be playing well below the contract. You don't compete for championships, paying the 13th best QB on an arithmetic scale with the elites. The 13th best QB is not worth 85% of Josh Allen. If you want to compete for a title you have to pay that guy 15% to 20% of Josh Allen, employ a stars and scrubs strategy. |
I understand, but that's where it enters game theory territory. If you are paying a QB who - over his most recent 40-game sample - has played like the 13th best QB (assuming Jones has a good 2024, which for the record I don't will happen), you at least know you are getting 13th-best QB value for your 13th-best contract and can presumably use your remaining margin to build a roster than can cover for his shortcomings.
Going for 15 or 20 percent of Josh Allen is definitely more cost-efficient, but then you're talking rookie scale or journeman backup, where the actual odds of getting good QB play are much lower.
do you do anything else with your day? Some people don’t agree with you, move on.
Depending on the OL. I expect only marginal improvement from OL and he is not good enough to overcome poor OL play and no running game. Only the very best can do that.
Why poor OL?
AT will miss some time.
JMS will not improve much (He is 25 6 year college not 22)
Neal will miss some time.
No stability - again.
Not only is it ruining Jones career. It ruined Elis as well. It's a team sprot not fantasy football where nothing matters but statistics. The game needs to be played properly and the Giant offense has not.
In comment 16538274 Darwinian said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538269 HBart said: Quote: In comment 16538244 Darwinian said: Quote: In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said: Quote: 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience. You're hilarious. How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric? |
Yup, Jones was healthy for 5 games. Like everyone else he was abysmal opening night (yet not as bad as many of his teammates). AZ was a great 2nd half performance; he was fine against the Fins till hurt.
I won't defend his performance versus SF though I easily could. I'll just leave it as he sucked that game, and also against Seattle. I won't mention the OL, or lack of weapons (remember SB was hurt, Hyatt raw, WDR recovering, Campbell a zero but we didn't know that yet, and Waller meh). Blame it on Jones 100%.
That's why you're hilarious. All your sturm and drang about Jones in 2023 comes down to 2 games.
Unfortunately, injuries happen and Daniel has been pretty reckless with his body when he runs. But I believe that he got really beat up because of poor OL play. If that is improved, he may be able to make it through a whole season.
I do not see a scenario where the OL is improved, the WRs are improved, our RBBC is clicking and DJ is keeping us stuck in the mud. So I'm going to say somewhere between #3 and #4. No amount of improvement will be enough for the haters to take an egg to the face, so I ain't gonna expect that. But again... can't rule out #1 for anyone, not just DJ. Especially on this team as snake bit as we've been.
PS
SFGFNCGiantsFan I don't think you are one of the unreasonably hateful sh*tposters here. I've actually seen you come to Jone's defense when warranted.
In comment 16538123 Mike from SI said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538016 yalebowl said: Quote: Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue. If it's 4 everyone on here will be ecstatic and most will admit that they were wrong. If it's 1-3, the same people who have defended Jones at every turn will continue to make excuses and/or live in fantasy realities. |
Dunk isn't gonna be ecstatic... He'll still be calling for Jone's head on a pike because clearly it will be an anomaly 🤣
the roster construction is now more like what everyone else wants - RBBC, fast, play making WRs, athletic TE, premier LT, etc. I can’t see Jones holding them back outside of injury. That isn’t to say there isn’t a production cap because of him - there definitely is - but I cant see us putting up 17/18ppg if all those units are holding up their end.
In comment 16538364 Dr. D said:
| Quote: |
| The team scored 38 the last meaningful reg season game (everyone seems to forget DJ got a standing ovation after scoring 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing) to clinch the playoff berth) and then 31 on the road against a 13 win team (I don't want to hear the opposing defenses sucked, 'cause guess what, that's when you should score 30+ and they did, even with one of the worst receiving corps in the league). |
But those two defenses did, indeed, suck.
Points allowed by the 2022 Colts: 427
Points allowed by the 2022 Vikings: 427
If you want to hang your hat on scoring points on two wretched defenses, be my guest.
In comment 16538418 ZoneXDOA said:
| Quote: |
| In comment 16538123 Mike from SI said: Quote: In comment 16538016 yalebowl said: Quote: Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue. If it's 4 everyone on here will be ecstatic and most will admit that they were wrong. If it's 1-3, the same people who have defended Jones at every turn will continue to make excuses and/or live in fantasy realities. Dunk isn't gonna be ecstatic... He'll still be calling for Jone's head on a pike because clearly it will be an anomaly 🤣 |
Keep my name out of your mouth. I will absolutely be thrilled if the Giants win, just like I was in 2022.
The reason why I have disdain toward Jones is because he is an obstacle to the team's success. Unlike you losers, I care more about the Giants winning than I do about poor Daniel Jones. The moment DJ consistently stops being a problem and starts being a part of the solution, I'll be happy to eat crow and support him. But that hasn't happened, and I doubt it ever will. I hope I'm eventually proven wrong.
whichever one I bet on will will be wrong. I think it will be either 1 or 3. The Giants will only look like idiots if they are already out of playoff contention when he gets hurt and possibly kicks in the injury guarantee.
Looking at the roster and the schedule one of the first two games are must wins. At 0-2 it's quite possible the Giants are out of playoff contention by week 5 or maybe even sooner. 0-2 could turn into 0-8.
Pages: 1 2 <<Prev| Show All |
