On reading all of the “Don’t they always” and “Have they ever …” comments, I thought I’d better dig out the relevant CPC (/ NOAA) link in my bookmarks “Data sites” sub-directory.
Turns out just 12 months ago NOAA was predicting a “near-normal” hurricane season, but the only “below-normal” years since 1999 were 2014 and 2015.
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Extracts of the “May Outlook” files with non-“above-normal season” predictions highlighted.
2024 : … an 85% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 10% chance for a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season.
2023 : … a 40% chance of a near-normal season, along with a 30% chance for an above-normal and 30% chance for a below-normal season.
2022 : … a 65% chance of an above-normal season, followed by a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2021 : … a 60% chance of an above-normal season, followed by a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2020 : … a 60% chance of an above-normal season, followed by a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2019 : … a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season.
2018 : … a near-normal season is most likely (40% chance), followed by a 35% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.
2017 : … a 45% chance for an above-normal season, a 35% chance for a near-normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season.
2016 : … a 45% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.
2015 : … a 70% chance of a below-normal [!] season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
2014 : … a 50% chance of a below-normal [!] season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
2013 : … a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
2012 : … a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.
2011 : … a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2010 : … an 85% chance of an above normal season … only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
2009 : … a 50% chance of a near-normal season … a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.
2008 : An above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), but there is also a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2007 : … a very high 75% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
2006 : … an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
2005 : … a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2004 : … a 50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season …
2003 : … a 55% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2003, a 35% probability of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
2002 : … a 45% probability of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2002, a 35% probability of an above-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season.
2001 : … a 50% chance of normal levels of activity during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season, a 25% chance of above-normal activity and a 25% chance of below-normal activity.
2000 : The current global-scale atmospheric circulation pattern is conducive to an above-average (active) Atlantic hurricane season …
1999 : There is a strong likelihood of above-average tropical storm and hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during the June-November 1999 hurricane season …
